Report
UK Food & Drink Inflation 2025-26 Forecast
15 September 2025
Our latest forecast reveals that food inflation is set to rise to 5.7% by December 2025, before slowing to 3.1% by the end of 2026. While cost pressures from “traditional” drivers have eased, government regulation has emerged as the leading driver of food inflation.
Topics
Inflation
Executive summary
- Food inflation rose to 4.9% in July, up from 1.3% in August 2024.
- Our updated forecast projects inflation to climb to 5.7% by December 2025, a sharper rise than the 4.8% we anticipated in March.
- Between January 2020 and July 2025, food and non-alcoholic drink prices rose 37%, compared with 28% for overall UK inflation. Milk, cheese, eggs, and oils saw the steepest increases.
- UK food inflation has outpaced that of most comparable European Countries since 2023.
- This shows that the cost of government regulation and policy decisions is the main driver of food inflation in the UK.
- Brexit, the pandemic, and the war in Ukraine have also had a deeper impact on the food and drink manufacturing industry compared to the rest of the economy.
- Retail price wars and efficiency gains could dampen inflation, but climate shocks and geopolitical tensions could push prices higher than forecast.
