FDF Trade Snapshot Q1 2025
Our Q1 2025 trade snapshot reveals that global food exports continue to struggle to return to pre-pandemic levels, down a fifth in volume compared to 2020. However, positive new trade agreements secured with India, the US, and the EU offer fresh opportunities to reverse this trend.
Topics
Exporting & importing
Opportunities for export levels to rise
Exports were stable in Q1 compared to 2024, but looking at the longer-term trend, significant growth is needed to return to pre-pandemic levels. However, there is opportunity to drive this growth, with the UK having a positive global trade outlook. The total value of UK exports rose over 7% in Q1, with non-EU exports up more than 10%. Export growth to Ireland, Malaysia, and the UAE continued, with the UAE entering the top 10 markets for UK exports for the first time.
Imports of food & drink growing in value
Imports grew by 7.1% to £15.8bn in Q1, boosted by large increases in the imports of fruit, poultry and chocolate. Tariff reviews and an updated FTA with Turkey could also reduce costs on products like olive oil and hazelnuts and diversify supply chains. The review of the Common User Charge provides an opportunity to address the burden on SMEs, who are currently disproportionately impacted.
Focus on the EU
The UK and EU have agreed to negotiate a Common SPS Area to remove most checks and certification requirements for food and drink trade. This is significant for UK exporters, who have been particularly impacted, and it’s estimated by the Aston Business School that an agreement could boost exports by 22.5%. The impact on imports will be more modest, as fewer products are impacted under the UK regime and checks on fresh produce have been indefinitely delayed.
22.5%
Focus on the US
Exports to the US were up by over 23% in Q1, while US imports were also up by nearly a tenth in the last quarter. However, recent tariffs have caused some businesses to stop or reduce exports to the market. The agreement signed with the US on 8 May is welcome and will hopefully create space for further discussions about the removal of the 10% tariff. To continue this export growth, efforts should focus on reducing both tariff and non-tariff barriers in the mutual interest of the UK and US.
23%
Focus on India
Trade with India has surged over the past decade, with exports rising by 156%. The new Free Trade Agreement and any resulting tariff reductions are expected to boost exports even further. Imports also rose by over 20% in Q1, and India remains an important market for commodities such as tea and spices that are not produced in the UK.
156%
20%
