Trade Snapshot Q1 2026: Food and drink market analysis
FDF’s Q1 2026 Trade Snapshot reveals that food export volumes fell 8.9% year-on-year, reaching their lowest levels in a decade outside of Q1 2021, at the height of the pandemic.
Meanwhile, imports of food and drink to the UK grew by 2.6% to £16.3bn, widening the gap between exports and imports. FDF is warning that this is a signal that UK manufacturers are losing ground to global competitors.
Exporting & importing
Export volumes fall to near-decade lows
In Q1 2026, UK food and drink exports fell 4.8% year-on-year to £5.7bn, with volumes also down 8.9%. This is the third lowest Q1 level since 2000 and only slightly above Q1 2021, during the pandemic. Volumes are now a third below pre-Brexit Q1 2019.
EU exports remained broadly flat, while non-EU exports fell 11.0%. Notable declines include the US (-27.9%) and China (-18.5%). Salmon was the hardest hit, down around 40% in value and volume, while positively, beef and lamb recorded strong growth.
Imports rising, driven by non-EU growth
UK food and drink imports reached £16.3bn in Q1 2026, up 2.6% year-on-year, with volumes remaining high by historic standards. This was driven by growth in non-EU imports (4.2%), which grew at a faster rate than EU imports (1.9%), continuing post-Brexit supply chain diversification. Imports from New Zealand (24.7%), South Africa (17.8%) and Brazil (14.7%) saw strong growth, with poultry, chocolate and beef among the standout products.
However, the cost of imported ingredients and raw materials remains 38.6% above January 2020 levels, and is forecast to rise further. This is as a result of disruptions to global supply chains, caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
Impact of US tariffs
The fallout of US tariffs has become clear as food exports to the US dropped by over a quarter (28%) to £529.6m, while imports grew by over a tenth (11.5%) to £419.5m. This means the UK’s export surplus has closed by 69.3% - from £359m to £110m. At the same time, US imports into the UK rose (notably salmon, spirits and chocolate). This shows clear asymmetry between US producers growing their presence in the UK market as tariff suspensions make it cheaper to export products, at the same time UK exporters are losing ground in the US, as exporting becomes more costly.
28%
Optimising global Free Trade Agreements
Exports also declined in markets where the UK has recently signed trade deals. Food and drink exports to CPTPP members fell 11.3%, while exports to India dropped 16.6% in volume terms. This highlights the need for government support to help manufacturers reap the benefits of these deals, which both come into force this summer.
11.3%
16.6%
EU exports continue post-Brexit decline
EU export volumes fell 6.9% year-on-year in Q1 2026, continuing the post-Brexit decline in exports to our largest trade partner. The SPS agreement with the EU is set to ease trade friction, but FDF members have indicated that 41% are either unaware of, or don’t understand how the SPS agreement will impact them.
6.9%
41%
